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English Views: 0 Author: Site Editor Publish Time: 2026-03-11 Origin: Site
--- A Strategic Analysis for Diaper and Sanitary Napkin Material Suppliers
On February 28, 2026, a joint U.S.-Israeli military operation codenamed "Midnight Hammer" was launched against Iran. The death of Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei in the airstrike marked a transition into total war. In response, Iran announced the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a global energy "choke point". This strait carries approximately 20% of the world's crude oil trade, with over 80% destined for Asian markets.
As of March 10, the war has entered its second week with escalating tensions. Donald Trump has publicly demanded Iran's "unconditional surrender," while Iran has launched missile strikes against Israel and U.S. bases in the Gulf. Shipping data indicates that commercial transit through the strait has nearly ceased.
Crude oil is the hidden lifeline of the hygiene industry, as Polypropylene (PP) and Polyethylene (PE) extracted from it are core materials for non-wovens and films.
Brent crude surged to $92.87/barrel, a jump of over 13%.
Non-woven enterprises anticipate raw material cost increases of 5%-15%.
Some petrochemical firms are withholding stock, causing "unable to buy" dilemmas for downstream players.
Spunbond non-wovens (used in topsheets) and cast films (backsheets) rely heavily on PP/PE.
Asia faces a Naphtha shortage crisis: Over 60% of Asia's seaborne naphtha comes from the Middle East.
Cracking units in South Korea and Indonesia have declared Force Majeure.
If the blockade persists, Asian naphtha inventories could be depleted within 4 weeks.
Extended Transit: Rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope adds 10-15 days.
War Risk Insurance: Rates have skyrocketed by 300%-500%.
Ocean Freight: Costs have surged by 150%-250%.
Order Suspension: SEA producers of PE/PP stopped taking new orders as of March 2.
| Category | Impact Details |
|---|---|
| Cost Pressure | Suppliers face a dilemma: taking orders may lead to losses, but not taking them results in no business. Price quotes are now valid for only 3 days. |
| Supply Risk | Safety stocks must be re-evaluated. Delivery delays are becoming the norm. Exports to the Middle East face high risks of order cancellation and payment delays. |
| Market Reshuffle | Leading enterprises can leverage scale and long-term contracts to smooth costs, while small manufacturers face severe survival tests. |
Short-term (1-3 months): Risk Control
• Lock in raw material prices via forward contracts.
• Increase safety stock from 15-30 days to 45-60 days.
• Evaluate non-maritime logistics like the China-Europe Railway Express.
Mid-term (3-6 months): Diversification
• Expand supply channels to Russia, Central Asia, and the U.S..
• Assess bio-based and degradable alternative materials.
• Establish price linkage mechanisms with downstream brand customers.
Long-term (6+ months): Strategic Upgrading
• Build a strategic reserve system for key raw materials.
• Integrate vertically by securing upstream supply via equity or long-term pacts.
• Invest in R&D for "thinning" designs to reduce material consumption per unit.
Conflict Duration: If the blockade is prolonged, oil could hit $100-$150/barrel.
China's Macro Hedging: Releasing strategic oil reserves and increasing Russian imports may buffer cost transmission.
OPEC+ Policy: Spare capacity from Saudi Arabia and the UAE could offset Iranian supply gaps.
Conclusion: The conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran confirms the deep link between the hygiene materials industry and global energy geopolitics. Suppliers must establish geopolitical risk perception and resilient management systems to survive this cost storm.
